Recently came across a fascinating perspective from Jeff Currie, Chief Strategy Officer at Energy Pathways , that beautifully captures the rhythm of global markets. He describes the world economy as a pendulum—constantly swinging between “Bits” and “Atoms.” Bits represent the world of technology—asset-light, scalable, intangible. Software, platforms, algorithms, AI. Atoms represent the physical world—energy, commodities, infrastructure—asset-heavy, capital-intensive, tangible. History shows a pattern. Whenever enthusiasm and capital crowd into Bits , the forgotten Atoms quietly begin to outperform. And when commodities and energy dominate the narrative, technology patiently prepares for its next surge. The pendulum never stays still. But today feels different. For the first time, Bits and Atoms are no longer opposing forces. They are converging. The AI revolution—arguably the purest expression of “Bits”—is now driving unprecedented demand for power, grids, data centres, and p...
Year 2023 started very strong for US equity market but does this rally has legs to continue. Pondering on the same question happy yto share observations on US economy and markets which you may find value. Current Narrative: At present equity market narrative is dominated by better-than-expected economic data of Europe, China Re-Opening and Immaculate Disinflation in US. Elaborating further equity markets are expecting a scenario where Inflation in US comes down along with growth, but without breaking system or at least economy will not go in deep recession. This will help FED to pivot an allow interest rate to come down and risk assets will do well in this scenario. This trade started in October creating rebound in US equities and drawing more and more participants into it. There are few data points and observation which are in contrast with current narrative. Observations Growth Sales growth remained strong at 11% in Q3 and remained firmly above trend line indicati...